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Anticipatory action in fragile context: Key takeaways from West Africa regional dialogue
With over 52 million people exposed to severe food insecurity, and 2,7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), humanitarian needs in West Africa reached critical levels.
Anticipation Hub
Climate shocks cannot be separated from the dimensions of conflict in terms of both analysis and interventions design.
/ Blaise Muhire, Conflict-sensitive Programming Specialist, Food and Agriculture Organization
On October 28th, DRC West Africa & Americas (WAAM) hosted a panel discussion titled “Resilience on the Edge: Anticipatory Action in Fragile Conflicts and Violence Contexts” as part of the 1st West and Central Africa Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Action, organized by Anticipation Hub, in Dakar, Senegal.
Uniting panelists from Danish Refugee Council (DRC), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and World Food Programme (WFP), the panel discussion revolved around multidimensional fragility, particular to the context of West Africa, shedding light on the growing challenges associated with insecurity, climate shocks, and forced displacement.
Understanding local community dynamics is essential to both take them into account and reinforce some of them in programming.
/ Dirk Gillebert, Conflict Sensitivity Officer, World Food Programme
Three main discussions emerged during the exchange: integration of conflict dynamics in analytical tools, community-based response, and technical limitations to the anticipatory model.
The panel called for adopting more integrated, adaptable approaches with local anchoring, when implementing anticipatory actions in fragile contexts.
Concluding with an outlook to fully explore the potential of Anticipatory Actions, and a shared vision over resilience building, the panelists put forward a series of recommendations, including strengthening local partnerships, tailoring tools to local realities, and affirming neutrality.
Participants at the 1st West and Central Africa Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Action - 28 October 2025, Dakar, Senegal Anticipation Hub
We have decided to partner with community-based early warning systems to complement the prediction from the model.
/ Romain Sztark, Head of Multi-country Operations, Danish Refugee Council
FAQ
Anticipatory action refers to actions taken to reduce the humanitarian impacts of a forecast hazard before it occurs, or before its most acute impacts are felt. The decision to act is based on a forecast, or collective risk analysis, of when, where and how the event will unfold. Learn more at Anticipation Hub.
Anticipatory action is emerging as a transformative approach in climate and conflict risk management, enabling proactive, cost-effective crisis management by addressing predictable hazards before humanitarian needs escalate. This shift from reactive to proactive intervention is not only more dignified for affected communities, but also enables more efficient use of resources, ultimately saving lives and livelihoods.
DRC is at the forefront of enabling this approach along the displacement continuum, integrating anticipatory action across its programming to support displaced populations in climate-vulnerable and conflict-affected settings. DRC leverages its expertise in displacement and conflict to build robust anticipatory systems, focusing on data-driven solutions like displacement forecasting models using machine learning.
The current DRC Anticipatory Action portfolio includes seven countries: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Niger, Sudan, Uganda, Yemen. DRC is gradually expanding its Anticipatory Action portfolio further while fostering a collaborative, future-focused risk management approach.
DRC's Anticipatory Humanitarian Action for Displacement (AHEAD) model is a global initiative dedicated to advancing Anticipatory Action (AA) for conflict-induced displacement. Supported by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, AHEAD focuses on developing national conflict-relevant AA frameworks, ensuring they are inclusive and shaped by multiple stakeholders, alongside in-country pilots.
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