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Innovation and climate action

Predictive analysis

Innovative solutions are needed to ensure a more dignified and efficient humanitarian response. With the expansion of big data, the potential of informing scenario-building and forecasting in humanitarian planning and operations with higher volumes of data has significantly increased.

With more accurate predictions and better evidence for scenario-building, humanitarian action can be accelerated, quality improved and outcomes for people affected by (potential) displacement enhanced.

Our objective is to develop tools that can enhance our understanding of the focus areas of our work, and provide us and the wider humanitarian sector with accurate forecasts and scenarios for strategic planning, operational response and programming in support of better prevention, early action and protection to displacement-affected populations.

Access the 3 models

Foresight: Displacement forecasts

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Anticipatory Humanitarian Action for Displacement (AHEAD) model

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Slow-Onset Drought-Related Displacement Model

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17 Aug 2023

Global Displacement Forecast update shows a significant increase in displacement

13 Mar 2023

New report: Displacement is projected to increase by more than 5.4 million people in the coming two years

28 Feb 2023

Anticipatory action triggered to respond to drought in Somalia

28 Feb 2023

Launch of the Global Displacement Forecast Report 2023

13 Jul 2022

Press release: Global Displacement Forecast 2022 – July Update

19 Mar 2022

DRC receive funding for new anticipatory action pilot

17 Feb 2022

By 2023 displacement will have doubled over a decade, new report predicts

17 Feb 2022

Press release: By 2023 displacement will have doubled over a decade, new report predicts

15 Sep 2021

New report: The displacement crises of the future will stem from forgotten conflicts

Videos: Presentations of our work

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Funded by

European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations
European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations
The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
Danish International Development Agency
Danish International Development Agency