Anticipatory Humanitarian Action for Displacement (AHEAD) model

The AHEAD model uses machine learning to forecast displacement in sub-districts in Liptako-Gourma region in Sahel, covering Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, as well as in South Sudan and Somalia. The forecasts enables humanitarian actors to get ahead of displacement crises.

A holistic approach using Foresight's methodology helped to build a machine learning model that uses historical data from key displacement drivers in these three countries. The model is populated with open-source data on conflict, health, environment, food insecurity, number of IDPs, and income.

The model uses this information to predict how many IDPs there will be at a regional level to better inform the wider humanitarian sector. These location-specific forecasts can improve operational responses to support affected individuals.